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Quant LetterNo. 50

May 2024, Week 4

159 items across 11 sections, as sent to readers on 22 May 2024. Paper titles open their ML-Quant page; ↗ goes to the source.

arXiv

Quantitative-finance and ML-for-finance preprints from arXiv.

9 items

Finance5

01

Ponzi Funds

The study suggests that investors' pursuit of high returns from active funds can predict ETF bubbles and crashes, and that a fund's liquidity can indicate its potential for inflated returns.

4 shares5 citations todaySource ↗

02

Deep Penalty Methods

A proposed deep learning algorithm for optimal stopping problems shows accuracy and efficiency in American option pricing, with its error bound by the loss function and other parameters.

3 shares7 citations todaySource ↗

03

Microstructure Modes

Research using a double coarse-graining procedure and Principal Component Analysis on electronic order books reveals stable parameters in a Vector Auto-Regressive model, but fails to account for the square-root law of price impact.

3 shares6 citations todaySource ↗

04

Continuity of Risk Measures

A study proves that a convex, order bounded above functional on a Banach lattice is automatically norm continuous, enhancing previous findings and applying to various deviation and variability measures.

3 shares1 citation todaySource ↗

05

Risk Sensitivity

Research identifies the conditions that make a risk or utility functional sensitive to large losses, demonstrating that Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall can become sensitive to large losses if properly adjusted.

2 shares4 citations todaySource ↗

Economics1

01

Influencer Cartels and Consumer Welfare

The article talks about the emergence of 'influencer cartels' in social media marketing, where influencers work together to boost their ad revenue. It also examines how this could affect consumer welfare.

3 sharesSource ↗

Crypto & Blockchain1

01

Deep Learning for Crypto Price Prediction

The article discusses a study on deep learning models for predicting cryptocurrency prices. It reveals that univariate LSTM models perform the best. The study also notes significant price changes in cryptocurrencies during the COVID-19 pandemic.

8 shares18 citations todaySource ↗

Historical Trending2

01

Optimal Information Acquisition

The study suggests that acquiring information early is beneficial in reducing investment risk, and those less risk-averse are more likely to seek extra information.

3 sharesSource ↗

02

The Unfairness of Fairness

The article introduces a utility-based method to measure fairness in decisions, arguing that traditional probability-based evaluations may not accurately represent real-world fairness, using college admissions and credit risk assessment as examples.

2 sharesSource ↗

SSRN

Working papers in finance and economics from SSRN.

40 items

Quantitative20

01

Pricing Hybrid Asset-Volatility Derivatives

The article explains how the cost of hybrid asset-volatility derivatives can be estimated using the asset's implied volatility skew, assuming it's generated by a stochastic volatility model.

37 sharesSource ↗

06

Stock Market Volatility Models

The paper finds the simple regression model as the most accurate in predicting daily volatility of the NIFTY 50 index among eight forecasting models.

2 sharesSource ↗

07

Common Ownership and Activism

The study suggests that common ownership can lead to anticompetitive outcomes, such as reduced wages and wealth transfer to shareholders.

3 shares1 citation todaySource ↗

08

AI for HR Management

The research highlights the benefits and challenges of Artificial Intelligence in Human Resource Management, including recruitment, performance management, skill gaps, and data privacy.

3 shares9 citations todaySource ↗

09

Downside Risk in China's Markets

The paper presents a new risk assessment model for financial markets, demonstrating that green bond markets are riskier than non-green ones using Chinese data.

3 sharesSource ↗

10

Sorghum Detection Accuracy

The study introduces an intelligent system for classifying sorghum varieties using machine learning and cloud computing, with the SqueezeNetLR stacking model being the most accurate.

3 sharesSource ↗

14

Credit Land Speculation and Growth

A paper claims that sector-specific credit expansions, particularly in real estate, can impact long-term economic growth and productivity, rather than overall credit expansion.

2 sharesSource ↗

17

Public Data Ecosystems Evolution

The research identifies the elements that create value-adding public data ecosystems and how they evolve, based on a review of 148 studies.

3 shares29 citations todaySource ↗

18

CPI Data Collection Optimization

The paper presents a framework for National Statistical Institutes to assess their data collection for the Consumer Price Index, using electricity and gas prices in Italy in 2023 as a case study.

2 shares2 citations todaySource ↗

19

Airline Stocks and Oil Price Volatility

The study finds a negative correlation between oil price volatility and international airline stock prices, recommending diversification and technology implementation to reduce fossil fuel reliance.

3 sharesSource ↗

Financial20

01

Public Firms Transformation

The number of public firms in the US has decreased by half since the 21st century due to heavy legal burdens, but their economic influence remains the same.

414 sharesSource ↗

02

Convex Volatility Method

Convex Volatility Interpolation (CVI), a new method for calibrating implied volatility surfaces using quadratic programming, has been introduced, eliminating the need for hyperparameter tuning.

6 shares2 citations todaySource ↗

03

Term Spreads and Recessions

Research shows that credit market sentiment affects the real economy through the term premium, with term spreads predicting recessions and affecting future growth.

13 sharesSource ↗

04

Highfrequency Data Analysis

Recent studies on issues in high-frequency financial data analysis, such as nonstationarity and low signal-to-noise ratios, are categorized into data preprocessing and quantitative methods.

6 shares20 citations todaySource ↗

05

Portfolio Optimization for M6

The M6 forecasting competition paper introduces a data-driven approach that directly optimizes portfolio weights, achieving a 9.5 global rate of return and an information ratio of 5.045.

3 shares7 citations todaySource ↗

06

Tick Size Reduction in Commodity Futures

The Dalian Commodity Exchange improved market quality by reducing the tick size for two commodity futures contracts, encouraging quote competition and cross-asset arbitrage activities.

2 sharesSource ↗

07

Interim Valuations in Private Equity

The history of valuations, including staleness and markdown frequency, can predict the future performance of portfolio companies in U.S. buyout and VC investments.

6 sharesSource ↗

08

Size Effect in Appraisal Proceedings

The capital asset pricing model (CAPM) may not accurately predict the returns of small public companies, suggesting a negative risk-free rate may be more accurate.

2 sharesSource ↗

09

Cultural Influence on Bond Investments

Cultural differences, particularly between Italian and Germanic origins, significantly affect investment in government bonds, especially during the European sovereign debt crisis.

5 sharesSource ↗

10

Climate Change and Shareholder Value

Companies more susceptible to climate change saw negative market reactions after Donald Trump's unexpected 2016 election victory, showing the impact of political stances on climate change on company value and shareholder wealth.

3 shares18 citations todaySource ↗

11

Portfolio Management with Python

The lecture notes discuss portfolio management, highlighting the use of Python for practical applications and the importance of understanding different types of returns for accurate performance assessment.

502 sharesSource ↗

12

MeanVariance Efficient Portfolios

A 1992 study found that a composite model of financial variables outperformed equity benchmarks by 400 basis points annually, a finding later confirmed by Markowitz and Xu in 1994.

92 sharesSource ↗

13

Cheap Stock Options

The research investigates cheap stock - equity-based compensation granted pre-IPO at a lower price, finding it leads to greater IPO underpricing, lower post-IPO investment, and higher CEO compensation.

152 sharesSource ↗

14

Insurance Investments

The study presents a theory connecting insurance premiums, insurers' investment behavior, and asset prices, showing that insurers with stable funding take more investment risks and earn higher returns.

209 sharesSource ↗

15

Informed Trading Risk

The research uses abnormal undercutting activity to measure informed trading risk, finding it predicts imminent information events and positively predicts stock returns up to six months forward, especially for stocks with tight short sale constraints.

192 sharesSource ↗

16

Hedge Fund Performance Decline

The study shows that top-performing hedge funds continue to add value, but their persistence has weakened and can only be observed using a specific method.

370 sharesSource ↗

18

Future Value of Mutual Fund Investments

The paper suggests that mutual fund investment forecasts are best presented in currency terms and that the precision of past and predicted values can help analyze sampling errors.

56 sharesSource ↗

19

Central Bank Haircut Policy

The study reveals that a decrease in the Eurosystem collateral framework leads banks to replace other high-quality government bonds with EU bonds, especially German banks.

2 sharesSource ↗

20

Equity Premium Events

The research identifies equity premium events using daily S&P 500 option expirations, finding that economic, political events, and macroeconomic releases cause the largest abnormal equity premia.

2 sharesSource ↗

RePEc

Economics working papers from RePEc's NEP field reports.

24 items

Finance5

01

Feedback Trading and Return Autocorrelations in India

The article explores how institutional investors in India have reacted to the COVID-19 pandemic, with foreign investors continuing positive feedback trading and domestic investors pursuing negative feedback trading, causing negative autocorrelation in market returns during high volatility.

23 sharesSource ↗

02

Structural Change and Volatility in Indian Stock Market

The study looks at the relationship between the Indian stock market and the top four economies' markets during the COVID-19 pandemic, finding significant volatility spillover from these markets to India, which should be considered by investors and policymakers.

18 sharesSource ↗

03

Explainable AI in Finance

The paper reviews current research on Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) in Finance, noting that areas like risk management and portfolio optimization are well-studied, while anti-money laundering is not.

16 sharesSource ↗

04

Fund Portfolio Mismatch and Market Volatility in China

The research indicates that the level of network connection significantly affects its impact on market volatility, with over-connection of networks increasing market volatility and reducing the stability effect from the optimal network.

14 sharesSource ↗

05

Optimizing Cryptocurrency Returns

The study examines cryptocurrency investment strategies using the robust framework of factor investing, finding that momentum and value factors have significant predictive power in forecasting cryptocurrency returns, emphasizing the need to adapt traditional investment frameworks to the cryptocurrency context.

13 sharesSource ↗

Statistical2

01

Boosting Trees for Oil Futures Volatility Forecasting

The research finds that ensemble boosting tree models, especially CatBoost and LightGBM, are more effective in predicting China's crude oil futures volatility than traditional models, with macroeconomic and HAR-type variables impacting the forecasts differently.

20 sharesSource ↗

02

Predicting Turnover with Machine Learning

The study reveals that the Decision Tree model is the most accurate in predicting employee turnover, with factors such as education, joining year, city payment tier, age, gender, ever benched status, and domain experience being key predictors.

17 sharesSource ↗

Machine Learning10

05

Firm Adaptation in a Changing World

A new approach has been proposed to understand how firms adapt to change, with a case study on a lending platform suggesting the use of an ensemble algorithm.

16 sharesSource ↗

10

ML for Project Cost Estimates

A machine learning study has developed a model that improves project cost forecasting, providing more accurate estimates throughout a project's life cycle.

12 sharesSource ↗

Deep Learning2

01

Bitcoin Crash Prediction

A new deep learning framework using contrastive learning has been developed to predict Bitcoin market crashes, performing 15.8% better than six other models.

14 sharesSource ↗

02

Multi-Currency Modeling

A new framework for modeling multiple currencies using CBI-time-changed Lévy processes has been created, offering a semi-closed pricing formula for currency options and two calibration methods using deep-learning techniques.

10 sharesSource ↗

Historical Trending5

05

Financial Statements Fraud Identifiers

The article proposes a new accounting tool for immediate fraud detection and prevention, utilizing financial statement relations and comparing the quality of current research in financial statement fraud detection models.

5 sharesSource ↗

Machine learning

The general machine-learning papers the letter carried in 2023-25.

17 items

Recently Published10

01

CATD: Multi-View Diffusion Models

Multi-View Diffusion Models: CAT3D is a novel technique for generating 3D scenes from any number of images, surpassing existing methods in speed and efficiency.

157 shares482 citations todaySource ↗

02

BiomedParse: Image Parsing Model

Image Parsing Model: BiomedParse is a new tool for biomedical image analysis, capable of identifying 82 object types across 9 imaging modalities, enhancing accuracy in biomedical research.

137 shares193 citations todaySource ↗

03

Octo Robot Policy

Octo is a large transformer-based policy for robotic manipulation, trained on a vast dataset, that can be instructed via language or images and adapted to new domains.

128 shares1,880 citations todaySource ↗

04

Slicedit: Video Editing

Video Editing: Slicedit is a new text-based video editing method that uses a pretrained model to process spatial and spatiotemporal slices, creating videos that maintain the original structure and motion.

48 shares50 citations todaySource ↗

05

ToonD: 3D Cartoons

3D Cartoons: A new technique has been developed to recover the 3D structure of non-geometrically consistent scenes, such as cartoons and anime, correcting 2D inconsistencies and enabling novel-view synthesis reconstruction.

29 shares3 citations todaySource ↗

06

Energy Rank Alignment

The article discusses the energy rank alignment (ERA) algorithm, which effectively generates molecules with specific properties using autoregressive policies.

25 shares7 citations todaySource ↗

07

Strategy-Proof Auctions

The paper introduces a deep learning approach for ensuring strategy-proofness in auctions, offering statistical guarantees and proving its effectiveness through experiments.

19 sharesSource ↗

08

Metacognitive Capabilities of LLMs

The study investigates the metacognitive abilities of large language models, showing their capacity to label math questions with skill levels and improve problem-solving accuracy.

17 shares96 citations todaySource ↗

09

Progress Towards AGI

The paper offers an in-depth analysis of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), detailing its definitions, objectives, development paths, and potential realization strategies.

15 shares32 citations todaySource ↗

10

Modeling Citation Worthiness

The research introduces a Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) network with an attention mechanism for detecting citation-needed sentences in scientific texts, proving its efficiency and potential use in pre-submission and pre-archival checks.

15 shares19 citations todaySource ↗

Historical Trending7

01

Minimalist DL Benchmark

The article presents MNIST-1D, a cost-effective, low-memory alternative to traditional deep learning benchmarks, designed for efficient study of deep learning structures.

614 shares35 citations todaySource ↗

02

Lumina-T2X: Text to Modality

Text to Modality: The Lumina-T2X family is introduced as a unified system for converting noise into various media formats, including images and videos, allowing for the creation of high-definition content with lower computational expenses.

217 shares146 citations todaySource ↗

03

FlashBack: Efficient LM

Efficient LM: The paper introduces FlashBack, a Retrieval-Augmented Language Modeling system that enhances inference efficiency by adding retrieved documents to the context, leading to quicker inference speed and lower costs.

82 shares2 citations todaySource ↗

04

DeepSeek-V2: MoE Language Model

MoE Language Model: DeepSeek-V2, a language model with 236B parameters, offers enhanced performance and cost efficiency compared to its predecessor, ranking high among open-source models.

51 shares1,459 citations todaySource ↗

05

Efficiency of CNNs

A novel approach to convolutional neural networks prioritizes computational efficiency over arithmetic complexity, resulting in faster, more accurate, and cost-effective models.

35 shares5 citations todaySource ↗

07

DREAM: Multi-Robot Navigation

Multi-Robot Navigation: A proposed decentralized multi-robot trajectory planning algorithm improves success rates and efficiency in both single and multi-robot scenarios by avoiding collisions with static and dynamic obstacles.

27 shares21 citations todaySource ↗

Papers with code

Papers that shipped their code, from the Papers with Code feed (2023-25).

15 items

Trending7

01

NaiboWang EasySpider

Webcrawling is an essential research instrument for scientists in both computational and non-computational fields.

25,232 shares

02

googleresearch GIVT

The article introduces Generative Infinite-Vocabulary Transformers (GIVT), which produce sequences of vectors with real values rather than discrete tokens.

1,725 shares

03

sbailab LightAutoML

The article presents LightAutoML, an AutoML system designed specifically to cater to the unique needs of a large European financial services company.

945 shares

04

MS MARCO Web Search Dataset

The article emphasizes the significance of data scale labels and modals in large models, showcasing recent developments.

227 shares

05

KolmogorovArnold Networks

The paper demonstrates that Gaussian radial basis functions can effectively approximate 3-order B-splines in KolmogorovArnold Networks.

168 shares

06

Platonic Representation Hypothesis

The article suggests that AI models, particularly deep networks, are developing increasingly similar representations.

144 shares

07

Sora World Simulator

The article highlights the crucial role of general world models in progressing towards Artificial General Intelligence, useful in virtual environments and decision-making systems.

131 shares

Rising8

03

Detecting Undertrained Tokens

The article discusses the problem of misalignment between tokenizer creation and model training in language models.

86 shares

04

Efficient Inference with KV Cache

The article suggests a new method to reduce memory usage and increase inference throughput by computing and caching only a few layers.

68 shares

05

MoRA Update

Lowrank adaptation is a popular technique for efficiently fine-tuning large language models.

67 shares

06

RLHF Workflow

The report discusses the superior performance of Online Iterative Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback in large language models compared to offline learning.

66 shares

07

MarkLLM Toolkit

The intricate and numerous watermarking algorithms for large language models pose comprehension and evaluation difficulties for researchers.

33 shares

08

Linearizing LLM

Linear transformers, an alternative to softmax attention, are gaining attention due to their fixed-size recurrent state that lowers inference cost.

32 shares

GitHub

Repositories the letter featured.

10 items

Finance5

01

Bisheng: LLM DevOps Platform

LLM DevOps Platform: Bisheng is a platform designed for the development of AI applications.

6,806 shares

02

QuantEssential: Grad Internships

Grad Internships: A job compilation is available for new graduates and interns in software engineering, quantitative analysis, and data science.

85 shares

03

Fortitudo.tech: CVaR Portfolio Optimization

CVaR Portfolio Optimization: Python is utilized for portfolio optimization and stress-testing through Conditional Value-at-Risk and Entropy Pooling views.

152 shares

Trending5

01

Financial Time Series

The article analyzes patterns and momentum trends in financial timeseries data.

204 shares

02

Pure Python Web Apps

The piece details the process of building web applications solely with Python.

17,078 shares

03

Fast Terminal File Manager

The article presents a fast terminal file manager created in Rust, using async IO.

8,932 shares

04

Python Frame Info

The article offers guidance on extracting information about the current operations of a Python frame, focusing on the executing AST node.

309 shares

05

Llama3

The article explains the process of implementing llama3 via matrix multiplication.

5,772 shares

News

Industry news: funds, hiring, markets and regulation.

20 items

Quantitative10

02

Jain Global commodities push

Ex-Millennium Management CIO Bobby Jain's new hedge fund, Jain Global, plans to heavily invest in both derivatives and physical commodities.

7 shares

04

Ovata Capital adds four PMs

Ovata Capital Management has expanded its team with four new Portfolio Managers after its assets surpassed $1.1bn.

6 shares

05

CME bitcoin trading for hedge funds

CME Group plans to introduce bitcoin spot trading to cater to the increasing demand for cryptocurrency among money managers.

4 shares

06

New York lawmakers target investors

New York legislators are contemplating a revision to a law that sets a 9% interest rate on defaulted sovereign emerging-market bonds, potentially avoiding conflicts like the one between Elliott Investment Management and Argentina.

3 shares

07

Hedge funds boost Chinese holdings

According to Goldman Sachs, global hedge funds have increased their Chinese equities holdings for the fourth consecutive week, expecting a market recovery.

3 shares

08

BCA Research names China Strategist

Jing Sima has been named China Strategist at BCA Research, where she will work closely with the firm's Chief EMChina Strategist, Arthur Budaghyan.

3 shares

Miscellaneous10

01

Shah Capital ends Novavx campaign

Shah Capital ended its campaign against Novavax's board directors after Novavax signed a licensing deal with Sanofi.

3 shares

02

Hedge funds struggle in April

Despite a negative performance in April 2024, hedge funds still hold a positive year-to-date return of 6.5%.

3 shares

04

Wall Street quant doubts A.I.

Wall Street quant Cliff Asness has shown doubt about the effectiveness of Artificial Intelligence.

2 shares

05

Qube grows assets to 20bn

Qube Research & Technologies experienced a 22% increase in 2024, raising the company's assets from $16bn to $20bn.

2 shares

06

Tang rules out Fed rate cuts

Richard Tang of Rokos Capital Management believes the US Federal Reserve is unlikely to reduce interest rates this year.

2 shares

07

Digital assets funds inflows

CoinShares' weekly report shows digital asset investment products received inflows of $932m in a second week of positive flows.

2 shares

08

Quants CDOs blending

The Waters Wrap article explores the merging of job titles in quantitative analysis and collateralized debt obligations.

2 shares

09

Former Odey AM top performers

Two funds formerly managed by Odey Asset Management were among the top 10 best performing funds globally in April, according to Société Générale data.

2 shares

10

Private credit trends tech

A Hedgeweek report discusses the growth and future prospects of the $1.6tn private credit sector on Wall Street since the pandemic.

2 shares

Podcasts

Episodes on markets, quant methods and economics.

10 items

Quantitative5

01

US Treasury Futures Roll

In a podcast, Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss the upcoming Treasury futures roll cycle and its dynamics.

10 shares

02

Commodities and Gold

Elisa Piscopiello and Francisco Blanch explore the intersection of geopolitics, commodities, and the transition to clean power in a podcast.

9 shares

03

Equity Strategy

Savita Subramanian talks about her role as the head of US equity and quantitative strategy at Bank of America Corp in a Bloomberg Radio interview.

7 shares

04

Value Investing

Tobias Carlisle shares his journey from being a lawyer to a value funds manager and his unique value investing approach in a podcast.

6 shares

05

Real Estate Strategies

The Strategic Investment Advisory Group discusses the long-term growth potential of real estate as an investment asset class in a CenterForInvestmentExcellence special edition.

6 shares

Related5

01

Yen Weakness

In a podcast, Arindam Sandilya, Ayako Fujita, and Junya Tanase discuss the future of Japan's macroeconomic policy and the Yen.

5 shares

02

HMMs in Ecology

Théo Michelot's research uses Hidden Markov Models to transform GPS location data into useful information for ecological studies.

5 shares

03

Darren Voges

Darren Voges discusses the influential Yodlee credit card dataset and its market impact in a podcast interview.

5 shares

04

Tony McManus Interview

Tony McManus talks about Bloomberg's approach to AI and GenAI, and the skills needed for graduates to join Bloomberg.

3 shares

05

Leonid Mironov on China

Leonid Mironov shares his views on China's successes, failures, and his predictions for the future of the commodities market.

3 shares

Blogs

Posts from quant and economics blogs and newsletters.

5 items

Quantitative2

01

REI Rules

Financial market traders are always looking for new indicators to improve their technical analysis and trading performance.

5 shares

02

RVI Returns

Traders in the financial sector are constantly seeking out new tools such as the ... to improve their analysis of market trends.

5 shares

Related3

01

AUDNZD Strategy Guide

The article offers a detailed guide on how to effectively trade AUDNZD using strategies designed for its specific volatility and correlation.

4 shares

02

Cliffs Perspectives

The article compiles various opinion pieces discussing a wide range of topics from quantitative finance to baseball statistics.

3 shares

03

RVI Strategy Guide

The article emphasizes the significance of technical indicators in financial markets, particularly the Relative Strength Index.

2 shares

Videos

Talks, lectures and tutorials.

5 items

Quantitative5

03

Project Astra AI Demo

Project Astra, an AI assistant prototype, can instantly solve mathematical problems and rectify graphs.

996 shares

05

Reliability of Program Rankings

A significant number of students are dissatisfied with the existing ranking system for educational courses.

1 shares

X / Twitter

Posts from quant researchers on X.

4 items

Quantitative2

01

Liquid Factor Models

The article explores the application of Liquid Factor Models for generating Alpha Model.

3 shares

02

Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks

The article proposes the use of KolmogorovArnold Networks (KANs) as a better option than MLPs for analyzing time series data.

2 shares

Miscellaneous2

01

Trendfollowing strategies beat equities

Trendfollowing strategies offer comparable long-term returns to equities, performing particularly well when equities do not, without any correlation to them.

0 shares

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