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Quant LetterNo. 74

November 2024, Week 2

146 items across 10 sections, as sent to readers on 13 November 2024. Paper titles open their ML-Quant page; ↗ goes to the source.

arXiv

Quantitative-finance and ML-for-finance preprints from arXiv.

10 items

Finance6

01

Estimating Shadow Rate

The research introduces a computational method to calculate the shadow riskless rate (SRR) in a risk-free market, which can help differentiate between investment asset classes.

3 shares1 citation todaySource ↗

02

Credit Risk with Copulas

The study presents a new model to analyze large losses from credit portfolio defaults using the Archimedean copula family and two algorithms that improve traditional Monte Carlo methods.

3 shares8 citations todaySource ↗

03

ajdmom: Python AJD Moment Package

Python AJD Moment Package: The article presents ajdmom, a Python package that automatically generates moment formulas for affine jump diffusion processes, useful for sensitivity analysis and can be downloaded from GitHub or the Python package index.

3 shares2 citations todaySource ↗

04

Improving FX Volatility Imputation

The study explores enhancing the prediction of missing implied volatilities in FX options using modified variational autoencoders (VAEs), which better manage data uncertainty.

3 shares1 citation todaySource ↗

05

Optimal Liquidation in HFT

The research introduces a high-frequency trading model using a hidden Markov process to examine optimal liquidation strategies under limited information, offering a practical algorithm to simulate the original liquidation issue.

3 shares5 citations todaySource ↗

06

Equilibrium Relationships in Models

The paper establishes that a two-cycle equilibrium in a model with infinitely-lived agents can also exist in an overlapping generations (OLG) model, indicating that both models can experience equilibrium indeterminacy and rational asset price bubbles.

2 shares1 citation todaySource ↗

Miscellaneous1

01

AIAgent Collaboration in Investment Analysis

The study suggests a multi-agent system for financial investment research that performs better than traditional models by adapting to market conditions and optimizing performance. This shows the potential of multi-agent systems in improving financial analysis and investment decisions.

3 shares42 citations todaySource ↗

Historical Trending3

01

Testosterone Peaks in Startup Founders

A study of 107 male Y Combinator founders shows a link between testosterone levels and company stage, with testosterone rising by 55.7% from pre-seed to seed funding, peaking at Series B, then dropping by 42.2% after Series B, indicating early startup success boosts confidence, while later-stage pressures increase stress.

42 sharesSource ↗

02

Random Coefficients in Volatility

The article suggests an arbitrage-free framework for randomizing parameters from the parametric implied volatility formula, improving existing parametrizations and expanding the range of acceptable implied volatilities shapes, proving especially effective in modeling the implied volatility curves of short expiry options before an earnings announcement.

5 shares4 citations todaySource ↗

03

Fast Bass Volatility

The paper introduces a new method for the Bass Local Volatility Model that merges local quadratic estimation and lognormal mixture tails for creating state price densities, showing that trapezoidal rule based schemes for numerical convolutions perform better than commonly used Gauss-Hermite quadrature.

3 shares2 citations todaySource ↗

SSRN

Working papers in finance and economics from SSRN.

35 items

Quantitative20

01

SafeHaven Assets in COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic showed that gold, Treasury Bonds, and the Euro were effective safe haven assets in reducing risk during the equities bear market.

6 sharesSource ↗

04

Riemannian Approach for Fluctuations

The article explores the extension of classical fluctuation theory to meet the requirement of general covariance, discussing its implications for entropy production.

6 sharesSource ↗

05

RealTime Proppant Optimization

A new real-time optimization framework for proppant concentration during hydraulic fracturing is proposed, addressing limitations of current prediction methods.

3 sharesSource ↗

10

Financial Impact of COVID-19 vs. Disasters

A study showed that large pandemic-related losses during COVID-19 were recovered faster than in previous bear markets, with gold and Treasury bonds offering some relief for equity investors.

2 sharesSource ↗

12

Machine Learning in Business Research

The study reveals a lack of transparency in predictive machine learning studies in top business and economic journals, leading to less citations due to not benchmarking against traditional models.

15 sharesSource ↗

13

SHODH SAGAR ® Research Reports

The article discusses the potential of Big Data analytics in improving risk management in IT service delivery through real-time risk identification, assessment, and mitigation.

2 sharesSource ↗

14

DataDriven Inventory Management

The study presents a data-driven approach to inventory and financial hedging for new products, using proxy return factors to understand derivatives returns and demand-return relationships.

4 sharesSource ↗

19

Predicting M&A Outcomes with ML

The study investigates the effectiveness of machine learning algorithms in predicting the success of merger and acquisition deals, highlighting the accuracy of nonlinear models.

3 sharesSource ↗

Financial15

01

Market Beta Benchmarking

The article introduces a new method for comparing market beta estimates to unobserved true betas, applicable to any beta estimate and requiring minimal assumptions about the true asset pricing model.

5 sharesSource ↗

02

Financial Response to COVID-19

The piece discusses the initial reaction of financial markets to the COVID-19 crisis, emphasizing the role of underestimated risks and delayed information in the drastic drop in asset prices.

5 sharesSource ↗

03

LongRun Disaster Risk Models

The article reviews literature on long-term risk and rare disaster risk models in asset pricing, introducing new methods to address criticisms and explain the influence of climate change on asset prices.

3 sharesSource ↗

04

Gold in Decision-Making

The article presents an educational framework to understand the role of gold in economic theory, focusing on its function as a safe-haven asset, a store of value, and its relationship with inflation and market volatility.

2 sharesSource ↗

05

Disaster Risk, Inequality, Fiscal Sustainability

The paper examines the impact of climate change on budget sustainability and inequality, suggesting that climate-related disaster risks increase government debt and inequality, especially among low-income households.

3 sharesSource ↗

06

Trend-Following Beta Replication

The article discusses the challenges of trendfollowing investment strategies and suggests mitigating them by replicating a broad index of such funds, despite potential tracking errors.

205 sharesSource ↗

07

Machine Learning in Finance

The paper reviews machine learning methods in portfolio management, discussing their limitations, potential future developments, and applications in systematic trading strategies.

8 sharesSource ↗

08

Optimal Hedge Fund Allocation

The research justifies significant allocations to hedge funds due to their diversification benefits, particularly equity and event-driven hedge fund strategies, even without alpha generation.

7 sharesSource ↗

09

Strategic Trading in Bank Portfolios

The study reveals that US banks are reluctant to sell underwater bonds at a discount, especially those not recognizing unrealized losses in regulatory capital and banks with low stock market valuations.

6 sharesSource ↗

10

LLMs for Time Series Forecasting

The article evaluates the performance of Large Language Models (LLMs) for stock market forecasting, indicating varying effectiveness in different data scenarios and suggesting the need for further model refinement.

21 sharesSource ↗

11

Fund Flows: Prospectus vs. Ratings

Prospectus vs. Ratings: Retail and institutional fund flows are primarily driven by sustainability statements in fund prospectuses, not external sustainability ratings, based on an analysis of over 23,000 equity mutual funds and ETFs.

22 sharesSource ↗

12

Index Investing: Sentiment Spillover

Sentiment Spillover: A model of index investing shows that index stocks have higher, more volatile prices, comove more with other index stocks, and have higher trading volume due to sentiment spillover from index investors.

4 sharesSource ↗

13

Private Game Equity Performance

Private video game companies that receive private equity investment generally outperform other markets, making them attractive investments in terms of absolute return relative to the public market, based on an analysis of 540 deals.

2 sharesSource ↗

14

Hidden Liquidity on U.S. Exchanges

Despite the goal of transparent trading, hidden orders account for a significant portion of trading volume, and an AI model can predict where price-improving non-displayed orders are likely to appear.

4 sharesSource ↗

15

Memory and Beliefs in Markets

Sell-side stock analysts' belief formation is influenced by memory distortions, with analysts often over-recalling distant historical episodes and under-recalling them during crises, according to a machine learning model.

7 sharesSource ↗

RePEc

Economics working papers from RePEc's NEP field reports.

22 items

Finance4

02

LowFrequency Trading Algorithm

The study introduces an improved algorithmic trading model that uses price indicators and a volume factor, yielding high returns with a high success rate and low maximum loss.

19 sharesSource ↗

04

Sustainable Investment Portfolio Optimization

The research presents a portfolio optimization approach based on a multi-index model that includes environmental, social responsibility, and corporate governance factors, providing a flexible alternative to large-scale covariance matrix estimation.

18 sharesSource ↗

Statistical3

Machine Learning10

01

Financial Stress in Banks

Machine learning was used to predict default risk in financial institutions, with bailout probability, market share, and market-to-book ratio being key variables.

24 sharesSource ↗

03

Hyperparameters in ML Models

A review of political science journals revealed a lack of transparency in machine learning models, with only 20.31% reporting hyperparameters and their tuning.

21 sharesSource ↗

04

Investors' Risk Perception

An unsupervised machine learning algorithm analyzed corporate disclosures, finding that most risk factors decrease return volatility when disclosed.

19 sharesSource ↗

05

Asset Pricing Uncertainty

A machine learning-constructed economic uncertainty index effectively predicted stock market returns, especially during high uncertainty and sentiment periods.

18 sharesSource ↗

06

Public Debt Analysis with ML

The research uses machine learning to determine that income channel significantly affects welfare changes due to public debt, while investment ratio channel has the least effect.

17 sharesSource ↗

07

Stress Testing US Banks with ML

The article highlights the role of machine learning in improving risk analysis during stress tests, uncovering complex macro-financial connections and enhancing risk evaluation in economic downturns.

17 sharesSource ↗

08

Naïve Bayes for Spam Detection

The research uses the Naive Bayes Classifier machine learning algorithm to categorize emails as spam or not, utilizing the Kaggle spam mails dataset and R software for data analysis.

16 sharesSource ↗

09

Support Vector for Gender Classification

The paper introduces a new stopping criterion for support vector optimization algorithms to identify a person's gender from biographical text, especially in strongly inflected languages like Spanish.

13 sharesSource ↗

10

AI for Innovation: Bibliometric Analysis

Bibliometric Analysis: The study discusses the significant role of AI, machine learning, and big data in fostering innovation, and highlights new potential research areas for scholars and practitioners.

13 sharesSource ↗

Deep Learning2

02

Index Tracking with Shapley Explanations

The paper suggests using a one-dimensional Pointwise Convolutional Autoencoder and Shapley Additive Explanations for index tracking, outperforming other stock selection strategies in various financial markets.

17 sharesSource ↗

Historical Trending3

01

Asset Pricing from News

A study uses Wall Street Journal news text to develop a superior narrative factor pricing model that predicts investment opportunities with fewer errors.

6 sharesSource ↗

02

EU News Engagement on Facebook

Research finds that negative news about the EU gets more reactions and shares on social media, emotional content gets more comments, but conflict reduces engagement.

4 sharesSource ↗

03

Collusion Regulation

The article stresses the need to understand the existing legal system to effectively regulate collusion, rather than relying on economists' idealized views.

1 sharesSource ↗

Machine learning

The general machine-learning papers the letter carried in 2023-25.

19 items

Recently Published10

01

Shared Semantic Representations

Modern language models can process various languages and forms by learning a shared representation space used during input processing.

65 shares82 citations todaySource ↗

02

Sparse Multi-Modal Transformer

The Mixture-of-Transformers (MoT) is a sparse multi-modal transformer architecture that reduces pretraining costs and allows modality-specific processing with global self-attention.

58 shares161 citations todaySource ↗

03

Building Large Knowledge Bases

A large general-domain knowledge base (GPTKB) can be built entirely from a large language model, containing 105 million triples for over 2.9 million entities.

45 shares18 citations todaySource ↗

04

Generative Diffusion

The generative performance of diffusion models can be enhanced by using noise sources with temporal correlations for data destruction in the forward process.

25 shares2 citations todaySource ↗

05

Generative Video Camera Controls

ReCapture is a method for creating new videos with unique camera trajectories from a single video, allowing for the regeneration of the video from different angles and cinematic camera motion.

23 shares76 citations todaySource ↗

06

DynaMem: Mobile Manipulation

Mobile Manipulation: DynaMem is a new method that uses dynamic spatio-semantic memory to help robots explore and adapt to new environments and track object movements.

20 shares59 citations todaySource ↗

07

Stronger Models vs. Tuning

A study introduces Compatibility-Adjusted Reward (CAR), a new metric to evaluate the effectiveness of language models, challenging the belief that larger models are better for instruction tuning.

19 shares17 citations todaySource ↗

08

Watermark Locally

The Watermark Anything Model (WAM) is a deep-learning model that can embed and extract hidden watermarks in specific areas of an image.

17 shares72 citations todaySource ↗

09

Recycled Attention for Inference

Recycled Attention is a method for large language models that alternates attention between full context and a subset of input tokens, improving performance and reducing computational load in long-context tasks.

14 shares12 citations todaySource ↗

10

Add-it: Object Insertion

Object Insertion: Add-it is a training-free approach for semantic image editing that uses diffusion models to add objects into images based on text instructions, ensuring natural placement and detail preservation.

11 shares48 citations todaySource ↗

Historical Trending9

01

API LLMs Info Leak

Researchers have discovered a method to extract hidden information from large language models like OpenAI's gpt-3.5-turbo using API queries, exploiting a weakness known as the softmax bottleneck.

615 shares53 citations todaySource ↗

02

ChatGPT in Academic Writing

A study of a million arXiv papers shows that large language models, specifically ChatGPT, are significantly impacting the writing style of academic abstracts, especially in computer science.

293 shares40 citations todaySource ↗

03

Qwen.5-Coder Report

The Qwen2.5-Coder series, an upgrade from CodeQwen1.5, shows remarkable code generation abilities and achieves top performance in multiple code-related tasks, potentially advancing code intelligence research.

121 shares1,558 citations todaySource ↗

05

AI for Health in Africa

Research highlights the potential of AI in African healthcare, but emphasizes the need for culturally sensitive approaches and addresses concerns about trust, ethics, and systemic barriers.

77 shares4 citations todaySource ↗

09

SynCode: LLM Generation with Grammar Augmentation

LLM Generation with Grammar Augmentation: SynCode, a new framework for syntactical decoding with large language models, is introduced, significantly reducing syntax errors in Python and Go code generation.

37 shares87 citations todaySource ↗

Papers with code

Papers that shipped their code, from the Papers with Code feed (2023-25).

11 items

Trending5

01

OpenHands: AI for Generalist Agents

AI for Generalist Agents: OpenDevin is an AI platform capable of writing code, interacting with command lines, and browsing the web similarly to a human developer.

35,480 shares

03

SVDQunat: Absorbing Outliers in Diffusion Models

Absorbing Outliers in Diffusion Models: Nunchaku is an inference engine that merges the kernels of the low-rank branch into the low-bit branch to minimize redundant memory access.

165 shares

04

WebRL: Training LLM Web Agents

Training LLM Web Agents: WebRL employs a self-evolving curriculum, a robust outcome-supervised reward model, and adaptive reinforcement learning strategies for consistent progress.

146 shares

Rising6

02

Training Android Autonomous Agents

The article explores a code that accommodates both large language models and multimodal models within the same action space, available on GitHub.

115 shares

04

LLMtimesMapReduce: LongSequence Processing

LongSequence Processing: The LLMtimesMapReduce framework splits documents into sections for LLMs to handle and merges the results for the final product.

104 shares

05

Addressing Representation Collapse

VQ models often struggle with representation collapse in the latent space, which results in poor codebook usage and hinders scalability for extensive training.

89 shares

06

MVSplat360: 360 Scene Synthesis

360 Scene Synthesis: MVSplat360's performance surpasses other methods in visual quality for wide-ranging or 360-degree NVS tasks when tested on the DL3DV10K dataset.

41 shares

GitHub

Repositories the letter featured.

10 items

Finance5

01

Algorithmic Trading

The course provides a comprehensive understanding of algorithmic trading, targeting individuals with basic Python programming and financial market knowledge.

127 shares

02

Shapley ML Interactions

The article explores the use of Shapley values in machine learning in the piece Shapley Interactions for Machine Learning.

213 shares

03

FactorLab Library

FactorLab is a Python tool designed to assist in identifying and analyzing alpha and risk factors in investment algorithm creation.

13 shares

04

Price Data Downloader

The project enables users to access historical price tick data for various financial instruments such as Crypto Stocks, ETFs, CFDs, and Forex through CLI and Node.

362 shares

05

Pairs Trading Project

The project employs statistics and financial theory to demonstrate the Pairs Trading strategy often used in equity markets.

308 shares

Trending5

01

DearPyGui

Dear PyGui is an article about a fast and reliable GUI toolkit for Python with few dependencies.

13,270 shares

02

Sharebookkrpykrx

KRX stock information scraping discusses the process of extracting stock data from the Korea Exchange.

696 shares

03

Pytrade.org

Pytrade is an article about a trading platform that is based on Python.

55 shares

04

Aphroditeengine

Largescale LLM inference engine discusses a large-scale inference engine designed for logical latent models.

1,122 shares

05

AwesomeFastAPI

A curated list of awesome things related to FastAPI is a collection of useful resources and tools for FastAPI.

8,658 shares

News

Industry news: funds, hiring, markets and regulation.

20 items

Quantitative10

01

Hedge Fund Risk on the Rise

Beacon Platform's research reveals that hedge funds are boosting their risk management budgets due to increasing regulatory scrutiny.

11 shares

02

Brigade Gets 300m from Blackstone

Brigade Capital has received a $300m investment from Blackstone to enhance its private credit strategy and collateralised loan obligations platform, according to Reuters.

8 shares

05

Free Resources for Quant Finance

In his 2024 article for DataDrivenInvestor, Jovan S Hernandez lists five free tools he utilized to enter Quant Finance.

4 shares

06

SFERS Boosts Allocations

The San Francisco City & County Employees Retirement System (SFERS) plans to invest in a new hedge fund and venture capital allocation ahead of its November board meeting.

3 shares

07

FTX Sues Scaramucci

Bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange FTX is suing Anthony Scaramucci and his hedge fund SkyBridge Capital to recover funds for its creditors.

3 shares

08

Citadel Hires Elliott Partner

Citadel, a hedge fund owned by Ken Griffin, has hired Nabeel Bhanji from Elliott Investment Management in a significant recruitment move.

3 shares

09

Brazil’s Verde Invests in Bitcoin

Brazilian hedge fund Verde Asset Management strategically invested in bitcoin prior to the US election, benefiting from the cryptocurrency's rally triggered by Trump's return to office.

2 shares

10

Hedge Funds Lose on Tesla Shorts

Hedge funds that bet against Tesla have suffered over $5bn in losses since Trump's election victory, due to a surge in Tesla's shares after CEO Elon Musk endorsed Trump.

2 shares

Miscellaneous10

01

WTI Bullish Hedge Funds

Due to OPEC's delayed output increase and rising Middle East tensions, hedge funds have raised their positive outlook on West Texas Intermediate crude to a March high.

2 shares

02

Citadel Hires C Nerd

Citadel Securities has recruited the highly respected king of C.

2 shares

03

BlackRock Talks Millennium Stake

BlackRock is in preliminary discussions with Millennium Management about a potential strategic partnership, which could lead to BlackRock acquiring a minority stake in the hedge fund firm.

2 shares

04

Elliott IM's Female Partner

Elliott Investment Management has named Samantha Algaze as its first female Partner and promoted two other Partners to its management committee.

2 shares

05

Family Offices in 2025

A Hedgeweek report indicates growing opportunities for family offices in 2025, particularly in APAC and the Middle East, with increased investments in private credit and other non-traditional asset classes.

2 shares

06

Elliott Urges Honeywell Split

Elliott Investment Management is pushing Honeywell International to split its Aerospace and Automation divisions to increase value.

2 shares

07

Point72 Japan Head Steps Down

Point72 Asset Management is looking for a new Japan Head as Toby Bartlett is set to resign next year.

1 shares

10

Trump Rally Nets Rokos 1bn Profit

Chris Rokos of Rokos Capital Management earned nearly 1bn in profits during the market surge after Trump's reelection.

1 shares

Podcasts

Episodes on markets, quant methods and economics.

10 items

Quantitative5

01

Futures Trading Evolution

Trader Anthony Crudele discusses his transition from CME Group floor to mindful trading, focusing on strategies for market navigation and risk management in futures trading.

24 shares

02

Options Market Insights

Cem Karsan talks about the evolution of options from derivatives to key elements in market analysis, highlighting risk management, collateral leveraging, and the impact of geopolitical tensions.

15 shares

03

Gold Investing Strategies

Axel Merk provides insights into gold investing, discussing the influence of economic cycles, Federal Reserve policies, and strategies of mining firms on gold's trajectory.

14 shares

04

Technical Analysis Mastery

Katie Stockton shares tips on mastering technical analysis in investing, emphasizing diversified exposure, strategies to limit losses, and the role of technical analysis in assessing liquidity and macro trends.

8 shares

05

US Election Impact

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the effects of recent market developments on the EM fixed income asset class post-US elections in a November 2024 podcast.

8 shares

Related5

01

Treasury Roll Dynamics

In a podcast, Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss the dynamics of the upcoming Treasury futures roll cycle.

7 shares

02

ChinaScope Insights

Tom Liu talks about China's changing attitudes towards data and the market for alternative data in a podcast interview.

6 shares

03

Andrew O'Connell: Trading Champ

Trading Champ: Andrew O’Connell shares his investment strategies and experiences in a podcast episode.

6 shares

04

Implied Volatility

Dmitry Pargamanik and Will McBride discuss the impact of implied volatility on option quotes in a podcast with Jeff Praissman.

6 shares

05

David Kelly: Diversification

Diversification: Dr. David Kelly discusses economic themes such as inflation, consumer sentiment, and government deficit in a podcast episode.

5 shares

X / Twitter

Posts from quant researchers on X.

3 items

Quantitative1

01

Research Recap: Fixed Income, Stock Returns, ML Models, Arbitrage, and More

Fixed Income, Stock Returns, ML Models, Arbitrage, and More: The article summarizes recent research on various financial topics including fixed-income investing, stock return predictability, economic constraints in machine learning models, and statistical arbitrage. It also mentions resources like blogs, repositories, and podcasts.

0 shares

Miscellaneous2

02

Stocks Added to S&P 500

The article investigates the performance of stocks when they are included in the S&P 500, a crucial measure of the U.S. economy's health.

0 shares

Reddit

Threads from r/quant, r/algotrading and friends.

6 items

Quantitative5

Rising1

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