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Quant LetterNo. 113

September 2025, Week 4

108 items across 8 sections, as sent to readers on 22 September 2025. Paper titles open their ML-Quant page; ↗ goes to the source.

arXiv

Quantitative-finance and ML-for-finance preprints from arXiv.

26 items

Finance10

01

DeltaHedge: Options Optimization

Options Optimization: DeltaHedge, an AI-based framework that combines portfolio management with options trading, outperforms traditional strategies and improves risk-adjusted returns in various market conditions.

19 shares5 citations todaySource ↗

02

Myopic Portfolio Management

Myopic Optimization (MO) outperforms Reinforcement Learning (RL) in portfolio management, resulting in lower costs, increased profits, and reduced model risk.

19 shares1 citation todaySource ↗

03

Unbiased Rough Integrators in Markets

The paper highlights the limitations of rough path theory in modeling continuous non-semimartingale assets, suggesting that markets based on this theory are limited to the semimartingale paradigm.

11 sharesSource ↗

05

Income Disaster and Retirement

The study shows that the level of government income support significantly affects the retirement decisions of low-income individuals facing income disaster.

10 sharesSource ↗

06

Timing for VWAP Prediction

The research indicates that adding timing data to machine learning models can enhance the prediction of volume-weighted average price (VWAP).

9 shares1 citation todaySource ↗

09

Subadditivity of VaRs

The research reveals a new characteristic of value at risk (VaR), stating that its subadditivity holds for any confidence level only if the loss random variables are comonotonic.

6 shares5 citations todaySource ↗

10

Optimal Annuitization with Stochastic Mortality

The paper discusses the best time to convert retirement savings into a lifetime annuity, considering market and longevity risks, and demonstrates the effect of a health shock on annuitization timing through a numerical example.

6 shares3 citations todaySource ↗

Economics8

01

LLM Adoption Impact

Large Language Models like ChatGPT have boosted earnings for workers in certain occupations without affecting unemployment rates, indicating they enhance income rather than replace jobs.

19 shares2 citations todaySource ↗

02

Human-Machine Skills Impact

A Monte Carlo simulation study suggests that combining human and machine skills is most effective for tasks requiring high generalization, but only if true augmentation is achieved; otherwise, it can be costly due to its dual skill structure.

13 sharesSource ↗

03

Incomplete Round-Robin Tournaments Incentives

A simulation of the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League reform shows that the tournament format can greatly influence team behavior, with the new incomplete round-robin phase encouraging more offensive play.

10 shares7 citations todaySource ↗

04

ECB and Fed Interest Rate Shocks Spillovers

Research shows that European Central Bank interest rate hikes result in a depreciation of the Canadian dollar and a contraction in economic activity, mainly through international trade, while U.S. Federal Reserve shocks impact Canadian financial conditions more directly.

8 sharesSource ↗

05

Public Sector Productivity Paradoxes

The article critically reviews the traditional method of measuring total factor productivity in the public sector, highlighting inconsistencies and advocating for a shift towards non-market valuation methods based on economic theory.

8 sharesSource ↗

06

Deep Learning for Stochastic Economies

The paper presents a deep learning algorithm designed to estimate functional rational expectations equilibria in dynamic stochastic economies, demonstrating its effectiveness through three progressively complex economies.

7 shares3 citations todaySource ↗

07

Poverty and Electoral Integrity

The research suggests a U-shaped relationship between electoral integrity and poverty, supported by data from the 2016 U.S. Presidential election and the 2018 U.S. congressional election.

6 sharesSource ↗

08

AI Impact on Employment

The article examines the impact of Generative AI on employment and the macroeconomy, noting significant but context-dependent productivity gains, and calls for more research into adoption dynamics and effects on expertise.

6 shares8 citations todaySource ↗

Miscellaneous2

01

AI Adoption for SME Growth

The report emphasizes the significant benefits of AI for SMEs, with 91% reporting increased revenue, and potential for reducing operational costs by 30% and saving over 20 hours monthly.

8 sharesSource ↗

Crypto & Blockchain1

Historical Trending5

01

Finance Task Consistency

The research evaluates the reliability of Large Language Models in finance and accounting studies, showing they are highly consistent and can surpass human experts in this aspect.

35 shares42 citations todaySource ↗

02

Financial Trading-R1

The article presents Trading-R1, a finance-focused AI model that aligns with trading principles, showing it offers better risk-adjusted returns and fewer drawdowns than other models.

35 shares17 citations todaySource ↗

03

EMDLOT Default Prediction

The study introduces EMDLOT, a new framework for predicting multi-class bond defaults in China's bond market, which outperforms traditional and deep learning models by combining numerical and textual data.

12 sharesSource ↗

04

Harvey's Impact on Construction Labor

The research measures the effect of Hurricane Harvey on Texas' construction industry wages and employment, showing a significant wage increase and a steady rise in employment post-disaster.

12 sharesSource ↗

05

Human vs. Robot Delivery

The article examines consumer preference between human and robot service in last-mile delivery, finding that product privacy sensitivity, product value, and environmental complexity significantly influence consumer choice.

11 shares1 citation todaySource ↗

RePEc

Economics working papers from RePEc's NEP field reports.

30 items

Finance6

02

Volatile KSE-30 Equities Allocation

Machine learning has been used to pinpoint assets causing downward trends in the Pakistan Stock Exchange, suggesting a portfolio optimization plan for effective asset allocation.

25 sharesSource ↗

03

Risk Parity Optimization

Using expected shortfall as the risk measure in risk parity portfolio optimization can lessen sensitivity to volatility shocks, decrease portfolio turnover during market turmoil, and enhance risk-adjusted returns considering fat-tailed returns.

16 sharesSource ↗

04

Adaptive Market Hypothesis

The research finds that Sharpe Ratio Minimae and Maximae trading strategies are more profitable than the buy-and-hold strategy in global markets, supporting the Adaptive Market Hypothesis.

15 sharesSource ↗

05

Novel Window Analysis

The study introduces a new window analysis method for assessing decision-making units' efficiency over time, using the Whale Optimization Algorithm, and applies it to foreign exchange strategies and utility companies in the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange.

11 sharesSource ↗

06

Monitoring Poverty in Lebanon

The paper uses a new data augmentation technique to study poverty in the Middle East and North Africa, specifically Lebanon, using alternative data sources when traditional income data is scarce or unavailable.

10 sharesSource ↗

Statistical5

01

BRM for Predictions with Missing Patterns

The blockwise reduced modeling (BRM) method is introduced for better analysis of missing patterns in data, offering faster and more accurate predictions by minimizing data imputation.

20 sharesSource ↗

03

Product Market Competition and Zero-Leverage

Research shows that increased product market competition (PMC) prompts firms to adopt zero-leverage (ZL) strategies, especially those with higher earnings volatility, emphasizing the influence of earnings volatility on capital structure decisions.

18 sharesSource ↗

04

News Sentiment Impact on Risk Management

The paper reassesses the impact of news sentiment on stock return volatility, demonstrating that accurately measured news sentiment significantly influences intraday stock return volatility, with GPT-4 classification outperforming RavenPack.

16 sharesSource ↗

05

Stochastic ML for Estimating Production Technologies

A version of Stochastic Gradient Boosting is suggested to prevent overfitting in Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), providing a useful tool for scenarios requiring generalization and showing strong performance in high-dimensional settings.

16 sharesSource ↗

Machine Learning7

01

Machine Learning for M&A

Machine learning models are more effective than traditional methods in predicting Chinese corporate merger and acquisition activities.

28 sharesSource ↗

02

Tail Risk Management

Two new probabilistic deep learning frameworks have been proposed for estimating financial risk measures, aiding in better capital allocation in financial institutions.

27 sharesSource ↗

03

Bond Market Volatility in China

Machine learning methods can accurately predict Chinese stock market volatility using the volatility of long-term treasury bond contracts, particularly those of 10 years.

24 sharesSource ↗

04

Lot Streaming and Scheduling

The article proposes a new algorithm and machine learning model to improve efficiency and accuracy in the Lot Streaming and Scheduling Problem with stochastic product arrival times.

16 sharesSource ↗

05

Dynamics in Chinese Markets

The paper introduces a new machine learning technique for analyzing and modeling complex time series, providing an alternative to the Box-Jenkins methodology.

13 sharesSource ↗

06

Monetary Policy Frictions and Loans

The study uses machine learning to create a monetary policy frictions index, revealing that these frictions significantly impact the nonperforming loans of Chinese commercial banks.

12 sharesSource ↗

07

Housing Market Connectedness

The research uses machine learning to study the international housing market, finding that the US market is the main source of systematic shocks and its interest rate is the most influential global factor.

10 sharesSource ↗

Deep Learning2

01

Oil Price Forecasting: ML vs. DL

ML vs. DL: Deep learning methods have been found to be more effective than traditional machine learning in predicting oil prices, especially during crises.

31 sharesSource ↗

Historical Trending10

01

Predicting VIX Trends

The article discusses a machine learning approach to predict the CBOE Volatility Index, highlighting the importance of weekly jobless claim data for investment and risk management strategies.

23 sharesSource ↗

02

Stock Price Prediction

The study reveals that traditional machine learning models outperform deep learning models in predicting stock price direction in the Eurozone banking sector.

13 sharesSource ↗

03

AI Capability Impact

The paper suggests that AI capability directly influences firm performance, with a data-driven culture and AI infrastructure playing significant roles.

5 sharesSource ↗

04

Climate Discussions

The article emphasizes the role of communication and a holistic approach in addressing climate change, using machine learning to analyze social media discussions on the topic.

4 sharesSource ↗

05

Dark Patterns in Retail

The research investigates the problem of dark patterns in retail investment, suggesting the use of behavioral sciences and AI to improve regulation and protect investors.

2 sharesSource ↗

09

Bank Performance Determinants

The paper analyzes literature on factors affecting banks' performance, proposing new research areas, particularly around digital transformation, artificial intelligence, and FinTechs.

1 sharesSource ↗

10

Work Need Satisfaction Scale in Online Gig Work

The study tests the Work Need Satisfaction Scale's (WNSS) suitability for online gig workers, suggesting the scale's adaptation to better understand online platform work and improve worker satisfaction and well-being.

1 sharesSource ↗

Machine learning

The general machine-learning papers the letter carried in 2023-25.

10 items

Historical Trending10

01

QGuided Stepwise Search

QLASS is a new method for language agents that enhances performance in complex tasks through generating annotations in a stepwise manner, even with limited supervision.

189 shares19 citations todaySource ↗

02

Foundations for Conformal Prediction

The Risk-Averse Calibration algorithm improves decision-making in risk-sensitive areas like medicine by linking prediction uncertainty to risk-averse decision-making, ensuring safety while maximizing utility.

20 shares46 citations todaySource ↗

03

Learning RoPEs with STRING

STRING, an upgrade of Rotary Position Encodings, offers exact translation invariance and reduced computational footprint, enhancing performance in robotics and object detection.

13 shares20 citations todaySource ↗

04

Particle Trajectory Learning

PoLAr-MAE uses self-supervised learning to analyze complex data from Liquid Argon Time Projection Chambers, achieving high performance with less labeled data compared to supervised methods.

13 shares9 citations todaySource ↗

05

LoRA-X: Cross-Model Adaptation

Cross-Model Adaptation: LoRA-X enables the transfer of parameters across models without requiring original or synthetic training data, making the fine-tuning process easier for large foundation models.

13 shares11 citations todaySource ↗

06

Articulate Anymesh: 3D Object Modeling

3D Object Modeling: Articulate Anymesh is a new system that transforms any 3D mesh into a movable object, broadening the scope of 3D modeling and assisting in robotic manipulation training.

10 shares53 citations todaySource ↗

07

SeedVR: Video Restoration with Diffusion Transformer

Video Restoration with Diffusion Transformer: SeedVR, a diffusion transformer, excels at restoring real-world videos of any length and resolution, surpassing other methods in preserving quality and retrieving details from damaged videos.

8 shares70 citations todaySource ↗

09

Mosaic3D: Dataset for 3D Segmentation

Dataset for 3D Segmentation: Mosaic3D, a new data generation and training system, has been launched for understanding 3D scenes, achieving top results in 3D semantic and instance segmentation tasks.

7 shares24 citations todaySource ↗

10

COCONut-PanCap: Panoptic Segmentation and Captions

Panoptic Segmentation and Captions: The COCONut-PanCap dataset, featuring advanced panoptic masks and detailed captions, improves panoptic segmentation and image captioning, setting a new standard for evaluating models in multi-modal learning.

6 shares14 citations todaySource ↗

GitHub

Repositories the letter featured.

10 items

Finance5

01

QFM

A new open-source financial machine learning library, utilizing Numba, has been created for quick processing of trades and advanced quantitative research.

33 shares

02

FC

A new Web Data API for AI has been launched, enabling websites to be transformed into LLM-ready markdown or structured data.

57,460 shares

03

IFMPMCP

The Model Context Protocol (MCP) has been introduced for Financial Modeling Prep, facilitating AI assistants to access and analyze financial data and market insights.

49 shares

04

SEC

A new toolkit for Deep Reinforcement Learning has been developed, allowing the recording, replaying of cryptocurrency limit order book data, and training of a DDQN agent.

924 shares

05

KLF

A novel system for data retrieval for AI agents has been developed.

751 shares

Trending5

01

RAG with LEANN

LEANN has launched a RAG application that saves storage space and maintains privacy on personal devices.

2,654 shares

02

winfuncopcode: GUI App and Toolkit

GUI App and Toolkit: The Claude Code Toolkit is a GUI app that enables the creation and management of custom agents and secure sessions.

16,413 shares

News

Industry news: funds, hiring, markets and regulation.

15 items

Quantitative7

01

JSCC Yen Swaps Cleared

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has allowed Japan Securities Clearing Corp (JSCC) to clear yen-denominated interest rate swaps for US clients, benefiting hedge funds.

6 shares

02

Hedge Funds Bullish Oil

Hedge funds have rapidly increased optimistic investments in crude oil due to escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe.

5 shares

03

Jain Global Hires BlackRock PM

Jain Global, a hedge fund owned by Bobby Jain, has bolstered its investment team by appointing ex-BlackRock partner and specialist, Joseph Kansao, as a Portfolio Manager.

3 shares

05

kWeek Trading Firm Internship

Getting an internship in electronic trading market making or high-frequency trading is difficult.

3 shares

06

Little Harbor Short Fund Launch

Little Harbor Advisors is launching a multi-manager short-only hedge fund targeting financials, real estate, private equity, and solar energy.

3 shares

07

AlphaQuest Loss

AlphaQuest, a quantitative hedge fund, reported an 11.4% decrease in 2025 until the end of August.

2 shares

Miscellaneous8

01

MFA urges SEC on shortselling

The Managed Funds Association is urging the SEC to alter regulations restricting hedge funds' involvement in public offerings after shorting the same stock.

2 shares

05

LSEG REDI Launch

LSEG DampA has integrated REDI into Workspace, enhancing execution management on its main platform for investor's frontoffice workflows.

1 shares

07

Digital Assets Fund Growth

Digital asset products saw $3.3bn inflows, increasing AuM to $239bn, nearing August's record due to improved bitcoin and ether sentiments, according to CoinShares' report.

1 shares

08

Optiver Raises UK Pay

The Dutch market maker has reported a successful business year.

1 shares

Podcasts

Episodes on markets, quant methods and economics.

10 items

Quantitative5

01

Managed Futures

Gordillo, Philbrick, and Butler explore the potential advantages of managed futures in the current economic climate, emphasizing diversification and their ability to add value in different market situations.

14 shares

02

AI in Finance

The article explores the role of AI in finance, emphasizing its efficiency in automating tasks but warns against making it the primary focus of a business.

12 shares

03

Investable

Dr. Erikson's book Investable critically analyzes how pandemics are turned into investment opportunities by international bankers and investors, raising ethical concerns.

9 shares

04

EM Fixed Income

Goulden, Ramsey, Hong, and Mejabi discuss the impact of the Fed cut on Emerging Markets and share insights from a conference in London.

8 shares

05

The Forgotten Hedge

Brandon Thor, in a LeadLag Live episode, discusses the lack of gold in modern portfolios and advocates for its role in wealth protection.

7 shares

Related5

02

Plundering Black America

Dr. J Calvin Schermerhorn's book examines the racial wealth gap in America through the experiences of seven Black families.

6 shares

03

Rates Inflation Outlook

US and European Rates strategists, Phoebe White and Frida Infante, discuss August inflation data and future inflation market predictions in a 2025 podcast.

6 shares

04

AGIX ETF: AI Unicorn Pre-IPO Exposure

AI Unicorn Pre-IPO Exposure: Derek Yan from KraneShares explains how the AGIX ETF is changing AI investing by providing exposure to private AI companies in a webinar.

6 shares

05

Commodities: Fed Cutting Cycle Outcomes

Fed Cutting Cycle Outcomes: Natasha Kaneva and Greg Shearer analyze the impact of previous and current Fed cutting cycles on commodity performance.

5 shares

X / Twitter

Posts from quant researchers on X.

1 items

Miscellaneous1

01

Investing Research Roundup

The latest investing research roundup discusses topics including the impact of news sentiment on commodity returns, volatility decay in leveraged ETFs, post-FOMC drift in option returns, and predictions for commodity option returns.

3 shares

Reddit

Threads from r/quant, r/algotrading and friends.

6 items

Quantitative1

Rising5

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