--- title: Quant Letter No. 126: February 2026, Week 1 url: https://www.ml-quant.com/issues/2026-02-02/ site: ML-Quant (https://www.ml-quant.com) updated: 2026-09-26 license: Summaries CC BY 4.0; links go to the original sources index: https://www.ml-quant.com/llms.txt issue_date: 2026-02-02 --- # Quant Letter No. 126: February 2026, Week 1 Sent 2026-02-02. 46 items. ## arXiv ### Miscellaneous - __[Cooperation in Human-AI Groups Depends on Behavior](https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.20487v2)__: AI agents in group settings can influence cooperation just like humans do, showing that social norms can adjust for both AI and human participants. (2026-01-28, shares: 0) · https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2601.20487/ ### Historical Trending - __[Bayesian Dirichlet ARMA for Compositional Time Series](https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.16821v1)__: The article introduces a new Bayesian model that analyzes compositional time series data, effectively handling structural breaks and enhancing forecasting accuracy during these changes. (2026-01-23, shares: 0) · https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2601.16821/ ## RePEc ### Historical Trending - __[Adaptive ML for VIX](https://econpapers.repec.org/scripts/redir.pf?u=http%3A%2F%2Fhdl.handle.net%2F10.1080%2F14697688.2024.2439458%3Bh%3Drepec%3Ataf%3Aquantf%3Av%3A24%3Ay%3A2024%3Ai%3A12%3Ap%3A1857-1873)__: Daily VIX can be predicted using machine learning, with jobless claims being a vital factor for better risk management. (2024-04-12, shares: 12) · https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/repec/taf-quantf-v-24-y-2024-i-12-p-1857-1873/ - __[KSE0 Volatile Stocks](https://econpapers.repec.org/scripts/redir.pf?u=http%3A%2F%2Flink.springer.com%2F10.1007%2Fs43069-025-00421-4%3Bh%3Drepec%3Aspr%3Asnopef%3Av%3A6%3Ay%3A2025%3Ai%3A1%3Ad%3A10.1007_s43069-025-00421-4)__: Machine learning assesses equities' impact on the Pakistan Stock Exchange, emphasizing effective portfolio optimization in volatile markets. (2025-09-20, shares: 10) · https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/repec/spr-snopef-v-6-y-2025-i-1-d-10-1007-s43069-025-00421-4/ - __[Automated Trading for Emerging Markets](https://econpapers.repec.org/scripts/redir.pf?u=http%3A%2F%2Flink.springer.com%2F10.1186%2Fs40854-025-00754-3%3Bh%3Drepec%3Aspr%3Afininn%3Av%3A11%3Ay%3A2025%3Ai%3A1%3Ad%3A10.1186_s40854-025-00754-3)__: Algorithmic trading and passive investing make asset management tough during downturns, but an Automated Adaptive Trading System may help stabilize portfolios. (2025-05-14, shares: 9) · https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/repec/spr-fininn-v-11-y-2025-i-1-d-10-1186-s40854-025-00754-3/ - __[Risk Parity Optimization](https://econpapers.repec.org/scripts/redir.pf?u=https%3A%2F%2Fdoi.org%2F10.1111%2Fjtsa.12792%3Bh%3Drepec%3Abla%3Ajtsera%3Av%3A46%3Ay%3A2025%3Ai%3A2%3Ap%3A353-377)__: Research shows that non-Gaussian methods for risk parity portfolio optimization enhance risk-adjusted returns in turbulent market conditions. (2025-01-24, shares: 9) · https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/repec/bla-jtsera-v-46-y-2025-i-2-p-353-377/ - __[Deep Learning vs. Traditional Models in Eurozone Banks](https://econpapers.repec.org/scripts/redir.pf?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.icfm.ro%2FRePEc%2Fvls%2Fvls_pdf%2Fvol28i4p29-42.pdf%3Bh%3Drepec%3Avls%3Afinstu%3Av%3A28%3Ay%3A2024%3Ai%3A4%3Ap%3A29-42)__: In predicting Eurozone bank stock prices, traditional machine learning models like XGBoost perform better than deep learning models due to dataset limitations. (2024-12-08, shares: 7) · https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/repec/vls-finstu-v-28-y-2024-i-4-p-29-42/ - __[Adaptive Market Hypothesis: Global Sharpe Ratio Analysis](https://econpapers.repec.org/scripts/redir.pf?u=https%3A%2F%2Farchive.conscientiabeam.com%2Findex.php%2F29%2Farticle%2Fview%2F4102%2F8464%3Bh%3Drepec%3Apkp%3Ateafle%3Av%3A12%3Ay%3A2025%3Ai%3A1%3Ap%3A120-142%3Aid%3A4102)__: Global Sharpe Ratio Analysis: Sharpe Ratio trading strategies outperform buy-and-hold in global stocks, supporting the Adaptive Market Hypothesis through market efficiency analysis. (2025-05-21, shares: 8) · https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/repec/pkp-teafle-v-12-y-2025-i-1-p-120-142-id-4102/ - __[News Sentiment and Stock Volatility: AI Insights](https://econpapers.repec.org/scripts/redir.pf?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.sciencedirect.com%2Fscience%2Farticle%2Fpii%2FS0165176524006086%3Bh%3Drepec%3Aeee%3Aecolet%3Av%3A247%3Ay%3A2025%3Ai%3Ac%3As0165176524006086)__: AI Insights: Accurately measured news sentiment, particularly using GPT-4, significantly impacts stock return volatility, showing better classification than RavenPack. (2025-03-09, shares: 6) · https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/repec/eee-ecolet-v-247-y-2025-i-c-s0165176524006086/ - __[Finite Mixture Models in Chinese Markets](https://econpapers.repec.org/scripts/redir.pf?u=http%3A%2F%2Fhdl.handle.net%2F10.1080%2F01605682.2024.2329156%3Bh%3Drepec%3Ataf%3Atjorxx%3Av%3A76%3Ay%3A2025%3Ai%3A1%3Ap%3A97-110)__: A new machine learning method for dynamic time series modeling proves more flexible and accurate than traditional techniques, especially for financial data during COVID-19. (2025-03-01, shares: 6) · https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/repec/taf-tjorxx-v-76-y-2025-i-1-p-97-110/ - __[Machine Learning for Tail Risk in Finance](https://econpapers.repec.org/scripts/redir.pf?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.sciencedirect.com%2Fscience%2Farticle%2Fpii%2FS0305048324002135%3Bh%3Drepec%3Aeee%3Ajomega%3Av%3A133%3Ay%3A2025%3Ai%3Ac%3As0305048324002135)__: Two new deep learning frameworks are developed to enhance Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates, improving financial risk management. (2025-05-08, shares: 6) · https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/repec/eee-jomega-v-133-y-2025-i-c-s0305048324002135/ - __[Heterogeneous Expectations and Factor Risk Premia](https://econpapers.repec.org/scripts/redir.pf?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.sciencedirect.com%2Fscience%2Farticle%2Fpii%2FS0165176524006037%3Bh%3Drepec%3Aeee%3Aecolet%3Av%3A247%3Ay%3A2025%3Ai%3Ac%3As0165176524006037)__: The study finds that differences in macroeconomic expectations affect financial risk premia, influencing stock market returns tied to future consumption and productivity. (2025-11-25, shares: 5) · https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/repec/eee-ecolet-v-247-y-2025-i-c-s0165176524006037/ ## Papers with code ### Trending - __[AI Safety Framework](https://github.com/AI45Lab/AgentDoG)__: AI agents require better safety protocols when using tools and interacting with their surroundings. (2026-01-28, shares: 176) - __[SelfEvolving Systems](https://github.com/YunjueTech/Yunjue-Agent)__: Adaptive agents that learn from feedback can adapt more effectively to changing environments and enhance knowledge sharing. (2026-01-28, shares: 145) - __[Enhancing Math Reasoning](https://github.com/AMAP-ML/MathForge)__: MathForge enhances AI's mathematical reasoning by adjusting question difficulty and reformulating problems. (2026-01-29, shares: 82) ### Rising - __[ASTRA: Automated Decision Framework](https://github.com/LianjiaTech/astra)__: Automated Decision Framework: ASTRA trains language models with synthetic data to improve their ability to make complex decisions. (2026-02-02, shares: 80) - __[AdaReasoner: Visual Reasoning Tool](https://github.com/ssmisya/AdaReasoner)__: Visual Reasoning Tool: AdaReasoner enables multimodal models to learn how to use tools effectively for enhanced visual reasoning through scalable data and adaptive methods. (2026-01-28, shares: 42) - __[Token Filtering for Models](https://github.com/neilrathi/token-filtering)__: Token filtering during pretraining minimizes undesirable traits in language models and enhances performance while managing noisy labels. (2026-01-31, shares: 31) - __[SelfDistillation in RL](https://github.com/lasgroup/SDPO)__: SelfDistillation Policy Optimization (SDPO) enhances reinforcement learning by incorporating textual feedback to make training language models more efficient and accurate. (2026-01-30, shares: 14) ## GitHub ### Finance - __[Rolling Window Calculations Library](https://github.com/msd-rs/py-alpha-lib)__: Alpha Library is a Rust library designed for quick financial calculations that can be used with Python. (2026-01-27, shares: 36) - __[LLM Crypto Trading Strategy](https://github.com/JiangZhihao123/llmalpha)__: A new framework helps explore automated trading strategies for cryptocurrencies using advanced language models. (2025-12-27, shares: 54) - __[CryptoFetch: Binance Downloader](https://github.com/varshithkarkera/cryptofetch)__: Binance Downloader: CryptoFetch allows users to easily download historical price data for cryptocurrencies from Binance via command-line. (2026-01-04, shares: 26) - __[ChatGPT Microcap Portfolio Management](https://github.com/LuckyOne7777/LLM-Trading-Lab)__: This project tests how ChatGPT can manage a real-money investment portfolio in microcap stocks. (2025-07-10, shares: 7301) - __[Protocol Buffers Data Format](https://github.com/protocolbuffers/protobuf)__: Protocol Buffers is an efficient data interchange format developed by Google. (2014-08-26, shares: 70605) ### Trending - __[OpenClaw: AI Assistant](https://github.com/openclaw/openclaw)__: AI Assistant: An AI assistant designed to function seamlessly across various operating systems and platforms. (2025-11-24, shares: 115991) - __[MoltBot: AI Assistant](https://github.com/moltbot/moltbot)__: AI Assistant: A user-friendly AI assistant compatible with all operating systems and platforms. (2025-11-24, shares: 67458) - __[FPrompts: ChatGPT Prompts](https://github.com/f/prompts.chat)__: ChatGPT Prompts: A platform dedicated to finding, sharing, and organizing ChatGPT prompts for personal use. (2022-12-05, shares: 144080) - __[Optimization Problems](https://github.com/teorth/optimizationproblems)__: A collection of different mathematical optimization challenges for problem-solving practice. (2026-01-23, shares: 177) - __[Awesome Web Agents](https://github.com/steel-dev/awesome-web-agents)__: A detailed resource list for building and developing AI web agents effectively. (2025-03-06, shares: 1039) ## Podcasts ### Quantitative - __[Dividend Strategies: Maximizing Income](https://audioboom.com/posts/8854726)__: Maximizing Income: Elisa Piscopiello explains the role of dividends in equity returns and shares tips to avoid falling into dividend traps. (2026-02-02, shares: 10) - __[Volatility Insights: Market Signals 2026](http://localhost:8888/TopTradersUnplugged/ttu-2021/homepage/si385-when-volatility-becomes-the-signal-ft-katy-kaminski)__: Market Signals 2026: Katy Kaminski analyzes market signals for 2026, stressing the impact of volatility and commodity trends due to global disruptions. (2026-01-31, shares: 7) - __Russell Napier on Financial Repression__: Russell Napier points out essential questions for investors amid changing monetary regimes and warns against chasing yields in inflationary times. (2026-02-02, shares: 5) - __Napier: Investor Missteps at a Turning Point__: Investor Missteps at a Turning Point: Alan Dunne and Dario Perkins highlight misinterpretations of global macro trends and caution against overheating risks from recent policies. (2026-01-30, shares: 5) - __[Macro Misreading: Policy Risks and Growth](http://localhost:8888/TopTradersUnplugged/ttu-2021/homepage/gm95-when-consensus-gets-the-cycle-wrong-ft-dario-perkins)__: Policy Risks and Growth: Russell Napier underscores the risks of yield chasing and emphasizes gold's importance in adapting to significant financial shifts. (2026-01-28, shares: 5) ### Related - __[China's Role in Global Governance](https://pdst.fm/e/traffic.megaphone.fm/NBNK2828299136.mp3?updated=1769975504)__: The article discusses how China is evolving from a follower to a leader in Bretton Woods institutions, shaping global economic policies. (2026-02-02, shares: 4) - __[AIs Whirlpool-Inspired Approach](https://datascienceathome.podbean.com/e/why-ai-researchers-are-suddenly-obsessed-with-whirlpools-ep-297-rb/)__: VortexNet harnesses fluid dynamics to solve major challenges in deep learning, potentially advancing AI technology significantly. (2026-01-28, shares: 4) - __[Investment Strategy](https://centerforinvestmentexcellence.podbean.com/e/2026-asset-allocation-draft/)__: Investment experts David Lebovitz and Jared Gross analyze asset allocation and market trends, providing insights for opportunities in 2026. (2026-01-29, shares: 4) - __[Commodity Market Volatility](https://atanyrate.podbean.com/e/global-commodities-a-week-of-commodity-whiplash/)__: JPMorgan analysts examine recent volatility in commodity markets, noting significant price swings in metals and ongoing issues in oil and gas. (2026-01-31, shares: 4) - __[US Stock Predictions for 2026](https://traffic.megaphone.fm/GLD6898011186.mp3)__: Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani from Goldman Sachs offers investment strategies for 2026, highlighting the importance of informed decision-making amid dynamic markets. (2026-01-27, shares: 3) ## Blogs ### Quantitative - __[Green Bonds Explained](https://www.man.com/insights/path-less-travelled-green-bonds)__: Green bond issuance has significantly increased over the last five years, leading to comparisons with conventional bonds. (2026-02-01, shares: 3) - __[Investment Risk Forecasting](https://www.man.com/insights/predictability-of-risk)__: Russell Korgaonkar discusses how investors can use market signals to enhance risk prediction and optimize portfolio management. (2026-01-31, shares: 1) ### Related - __[Optimal Market Allocation for Trends](https://www.man.com/insights/trend-following-optimal-market-mix)__: The article details methods for wisely distributing investments in various markets while following trends. (2026-01-29, shares: 1) - __[Silver Beds, Golden Dreams?](https://stockviz.substack.com/p/he-who-sleeps-in-a-silver-bed-has)__: It examines possible difficulties and concerns that may occur when using the trend-following investment strategy. (2026-01-31, shares: 0) ## X / Twitter ### Miscellaneous - __[Winter 2025 Commodity Insights](https://x.com/quantseeker/status/2016084449192984846)__: The Commodity Insights Digest Winter 2025 provides important research and insights on commodities, covering areas such as machine learning, trading signals, and energy spreads. (2026-01-27, shares: 3) ## Reddit ### Quantitative - __[Rust for HFT Trading](https://www.reddit.com/r/algotrading/comments/1qndlj6/are_there_any_research_papers_i_can_read_for_rust/)__: (2026-01-26, shares: 9) ### Rising - __[Quant Research Internship CV](https://www.reddit.com/r/quantfinance/comments/1qo2uar/resume_for_quant_research_internships/)__: (2026-01-27, shares: 1)