---
title: Beyond Carry: The Prospective Interest Rate Differential and Currency Excess Returns
url: https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/ssrn/4721897/
site: ML-Quant (https://www.ml-quant.com)
updated: 2026-09-26
license: Summaries CC BY 4.0; links go to the original sources
index: https://www.ml-quant.com/llms.txt
identifier: SSRN 4721897
source_url: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4721897
featured: 2024-02-14
citations: 0
topic: Macro-Finance & Rates
---


# Beyond Carry: The Prospective Interest Rate Differential and Currency Excess Returns

The study reveals that the prospective interest rate differential is a better predictor of currency excess returns than carry, explaining returns of various currency portfolios.

- Source: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4721897
- Identifier: SSRN 4721897
- Released: 2024-02-09
- First featured: Quant Letter No. 37 (2024-02-14): https://www.ml-quant.com/issues/2024-02-14/
- Citations (Semantic Scholar): 0
- Published in: not yet
- Topic: Macro-Finance & Rates

## Related

- [Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Legal Tender Digital Currency on Monetary Policy -Based on China's Data](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2310.07326/): The paper suggests that China should develop a more effective monetary policy while promoting Central bank digital currencies, examining their impact on China's monetary policy and money supply multiplier.
- [A New Framework to Estimate Return on Investment for Player Salaries in the National Basketball Association](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2309.05783/): The article introduces a new method for estimating the return on investment for NBA player contracts, using a game contribution percentage measure and a standard currency conversion calculation.
- [Topological components in a community currency network](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2409.13674/): Analysis of Kenya's Sarafu token network data shows the significance of cycles in economic networks and potential system misuse by some users.
- [Cross-Currency Basis Swaps Referencing Backward-Looking Rates](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2410.08477/): The article discusses the pricing and hedging methods for financial products linked to the SOFR and AONIA, which have replaced LIBOR as the main benchmark rate for borrowing costs.
- [Topology of Currencies: Persistent Homology for FX Co-movements: A Comparative Clustering Study](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2510.19306/): Topological Data Analysis finds clearer, more separated currency clusters than traditional methods, revealing co-movement patterns useful for risk management.
- [Uncertainty and Exchange Rates](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/repec/eme-sefpps-sef-12-2022-0579/): Research shows that economic policy and global financial market uncertainties increase exchange rate volatility, while US monetary policy uncertainty reduces it.
