---
title: False Discoveries in Currency Analysis
url: https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/ssrn/4781905/
site: ML-Quant (https://www.ml-quant.com)
updated: 2026-09-26
license: Summaries CC BY 4.0; links go to the original sources
index: https://www.ml-quant.com/llms.txt
identifier: SSRN 4781905
source_url: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4781905
featured: 2024-04-03
citations: unknown
topic: Macro-Finance & Rates
---


# False Discoveries in Currency Analysis

A new method, robust to data dependence and estimation errors, is developed to assess predictive models' performance, when applied to currency technical trading rules, it yields a Sharpe ratio around one for about 50 years.

- Source: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4781905
- Identifier: SSRN 4781905
- Released: 2024-03-06
- First featured: Quant Letter No. 43 (2024-04-03): https://www.ml-quant.com/issues/2024-04-03/
- Citations (Semantic Scholar): not tracked
- Published in: not yet
- Topic: Macro-Finance & Rates

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