---
title: Earnings Forecast Accuracy
url: https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/ssrn/4827682/
site: ML-Quant (https://www.ml-quant.com)
updated: 2026-09-26
license: Summaries CC BY 4.0; links go to the original sources
index: https://www.ml-quant.com/llms.txt
identifier: SSRN 4827682
source_url: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4827682
featured: 2024-05-15
citations: unknown
topic: Econometrics & Forecasting
---


# Earnings Forecast Accuracy

The study examines the link between model-based earnings forecast accuracy and portfolios sorted on implied cost of capital, highlighting that machine learning models provide the highest return spreads and the importance of considering transaction costs in financial analysis.

- Source: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4827682
- Identifier: SSRN 4827682
- Released: 2024-03-14
- First featured: Quant Letter No. 49 (2024-05-15): https://www.ml-quant.com/issues/2024-05-15/
- Citations (Semantic Scholar): not tracked
- Published in: not yet
- Topic: Econometrics & Forecasting

## Related

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- [Interpretive Earnings Forecasts via Machine Learning: A High-Dimensional Financial Statement Data Approach](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/ssrn/4619313/): Using machine learning models and comprehensive Compustat financial statement data for earnings forecasting can yield predictions that are up to 13% more accurate than traditional linear approaches.
- [Analyst Forecast](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/ssrn/4796635/): A machine learning method categorizes analysts' forecast revisions into five types, improving accuracy and reducing information asymmetry in earnings announcements.
- [Panel data nowcasting: P/E ratios](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/repec/wly-japmet-v-39-y-2024-i-2-p-292-307/): P/E ratios: The study uses machine learning to accurately predict corporate earnings, outperforming other methods.
- [ML Earnings Forecasts and Investor Expectations](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/ssrn/4673392/): The research indicates that machine learning can enhance earnings forecasts, especially for small firms and longer horizons, and that investors' expectations align with the best machine forecast.
- [Panel Data Nowcasting: P/E Ratios](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/ssrn/4547276/): P/E Ratios: The paper highlights the superior performance of structured machine learning regressions for nowcasting with panel data of different frequencies, especially in predicting corporate earnings.
