---
title: Modeling and Forecasting Intraday Spot Volatility
url: https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/ssrn/4837207/
site: ML-Quant (https://www.ml-quant.com)
updated: 2026-09-26
license: Summaries CC BY 4.0; links go to the original sources
index: https://www.ml-quant.com/llms.txt
identifier: SSRN 4837207
source_url: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4837207
featured: 2024-05-28
citations: 1
topic: Derivatives & Volatility
---


# Modeling and Forecasting Intraday Spot Volatility

A novel regression method for predicting intraday spot volatility outperforms other regression and machine learning techniques in predictive accuracy.

- Source: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4837207
- Identifier: SSRN 4837207
- Released: 2024-05-22
- First featured: Quant Letter No. 51 (2024-05-28): https://www.ml-quant.com/issues/2024-05-28/
- Citations (Semantic Scholar): 1
- Published in: not yet
- Topic: Derivatives & Volatility

## Related

- [Risk Revisited](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/ssrn/4825844/): The study identifies recency, cluster, and sign as three factors shaping investors' risk perceptions of a stock, influencing trading volume and future volatility.
- [Rough Volatility: Fact or Artefact?](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2203.13820/): Fact or Artifact: The study proposes a new method to estimate the roughness of financial asset volatility, attributing observed roughness to microstructure noise.
- [U.S. and European Listed Real Estate as an Inflation Hedge](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/ssrn/4843563/): The paper reveals that listed real estate (LRE) can effectively hedge against inflation in the long term, regardless of economic conditions.
- [Common Ownership and Hedge Fund Activism: An Unholy Alliance?](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/ssrn/4835079/): The study suggests that common ownership can lead to anticompetitive outcomes, such as reduced wages and wealth transfer to shareholders.
- [Convex Volatility Interpolation](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/ssrn/4831218/): Convex Volatility Interpolation (CVI), a new method for calibrating implied volatility surfaces using quadratic programming, has been introduced, eliminating the need for hyperparameter tuning.
- [A Novel Approach to Queue-Reactive Models: The Importance of Order Sizes](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2405.18594/): The queue-reactive model has been expanded to include order sizes, types, and arrival rates, creating simulated markets that closely mirror real markets and exhibit similar volatility.
