---
title: Intraday Volatility Forecasting
url: https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/ssrn/5216864/
site: ML-Quant (https://www.ml-quant.com)
updated: 2026-09-26
license: Summaries CC BY 4.0; links go to the original sources
index: https://www.ml-quant.com/llms.txt
identifier: SSRN 5216864
source_url: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5216864
featured: 2025-04-16
citations: unknown
topic: Derivatives & Volatility
---


# Intraday Volatility Forecasting

The paper presents a new model for predicting high-frequency intraday conditional discrete return densities and volatility using deep learning, which surpasses empirical nonparametric forecasting rules and Space State Models.

- Source: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5216864
- Identifier: SSRN 5216864
- Released: 2024-03-01
- First featured: Quant Letter No. 93 (2025-04-16): https://www.ml-quant.com/issues/2025-04-16/
- Citations (Semantic Scholar): not tracked
- Published in: not yet
- Topic: Derivatives & Volatility

## Related

- [Combining Deep Learning and GARCH Models for Financial Volatility and Risk Forecasting](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2310.01063/): The research introduces a hybrid method for predicting the volatility and risk of financial tools by merging GARCH time series models with deep learning neural networks, finding that while this approach improves volatility predictions, it doesn't necessarily enhance Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall forecasts.
- [Assessing Uncertainty in Stock Returns: A Gaussian Mixture Distribution-Based Method](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2503.06929/): A new deep learning model using a Gaussian mixture distribution is developed to understand the complex, changing nature of asset return distributions in the Chinese stock market, offering more precise volatility forecasts and unique risk insights.
- [Volatility Prediction in Chinese Futures](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/ssrn/5077241/): A new deep learning method is introduced for predicting Chinese futures market movements, demonstrating superior predictability compared to existing benchmarks.
- [DeepVol: Volatility Forecasting with Dilated Causal Convolutions](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/repec/taf-quantf-v-24-y-2024-i-8-p-1105-1127/): Volatility Forecasting with Dilated Causal Convolutions: The study introduces DeepVol, a model using Dilated Causal Convolutions, which effectively uses high-frequency data to predict next-day market volatility.
- [AI Deep Learning for Volatility Prediction](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/ssrn/4956075/): The use of deep learning for predicting conditional volatility can enhance the performance of long-short portfolios, with a negative risk-return relation accounting for the improved performance.
- [Volatility Forecasting Deep Estimation](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/ssrn/4759285/): The article suggests using deep neural networks to estimate volatility models, aiming to improve volatility forecasting.
